Analysis
November 20, 2020 Days after posting a blog raising questions about this year’s basic education enrolment figures, Undersecretary of Education, Diosdado ‘Dads’ San Antonio shared with me enrolment data of the Department of Education Planning Service as of November 6, 2020.
First the big picture:
A total of 25.04 million learners are recorded to have enrolled for this school year (2020-2021) in all public schools, private schools, and state/local universities and colleges (SUC/LUC). Compared to the previous year’s enrolment, this is a drop of 2,732,467 less learners in all grade levels (-10%). (Art by Bunny Luz)
Private schools reported a drop in enrolment of 2,080,233 (-48%). From limited anecdotal responses, this is largely a response to less earning income of families during this pandemic situation. In the public schools nationwide, the drop in enrolment was less but still significant: 584,432 less enrollees (-10%).
Where the drops in enrolment are in terms of grade level and regions might raise different red flags pointing to potential longer-term situations that may need to be addressed.
Hence, the questions:
- In private education, where have the students gone?
- In public education, if large numbers shifted from private to public, this masks the large number that may be dropping out of public schools or delaying entry to formal schooling for very young children.
DECONSTRUCTING BASIC EDUCATION
Basic education really has five age-specific segments, each with their own specific focuses and concerns to address.
- Kindergarten (K) – The focus is on socialization skills and getting young children ready for formal learning
- Grades 1-3 (early primary) – Simple literacy and numeracy (Reading, Writing, Arithmetic – The 3 “R’s”)
- Grades 4-6 (late primary) – Functional literacy (The 3Rs + the ability to follow and act on written and/or oral instructions to undertake certain tasks)
- Grades 7-10 (junior high school) – Learning to think along disciplines (subject matter competence)
- Grades 11-12 (senior high school) – Aligning long-term interests with the world of work
Common to all levels is a foundational skill: Learning to Learn – How children develop an ability to teach themselves how to think and act whether in a formal school setting or informally. Learning to Learn becomes the foundation for Life-Long Learning.
“Learning to Learn” should start as early as ECCD (early childhood care and development) which is even before kindergarten (2 to 5 years of age, or even younger [UNICEF]). Focusing on formal basic education (K-12), “Learning to Learn” is not about subject matter proficiency (i.e. math or science or English language or Filipino mastery) but rather on developing what are now called 21st century skills.
These are skills which when developed well will give children new abilities: To take apart situations even if they have never seen these before, to solve problems as these arise, to articulate what they feel are important to them and to be able to defend these with well-thought arguments, if and when necessary.
These skills are not learned as separate subjects. Rather, these are developed as children go through different subjects laid out in the curriculum (i.e. math, science, English, Filipino and so on).
KINDERGARTEN
At the Kindergarten level, enrolment this new school year versus the previous year dropped by 239,547 learners (-12%). A total of 1.8 million enrolled this school year compared to 2.04 million enrolled in the previous school year. Compared to the 5-year old cohort, the previous year’s enrolment represented near universal participation in Kindergarten.
Private school kindergarten enrolment was down by 165,371 (-66%) to 85,440 learners. Public kindergarten enrolment fell by 73,584 (-4%) to 1,717,49 learners.
Kindergarten (and early childhood development) has over the past two decades been recognized as critical to developing learning success among children. Kindergarten is important for developing certain skills such as socialization, communication, collaboration, language. Getting children into kindergarten at 5 years old prepares them (and parents) for Grade 1 (and elementary education) when they turn 6 years of age, considered the optimum age to start formal schooling.
ELEMENTARY
Total elementary enrolment (Grades 1 to 6) dropped by 1,263,482 learners (-10%) from 13.2 million to 11.95 million learners.
The drop in private schools was by 717,974 (-57%) to 534,797 learners. In public schools, there were 541,821 less enrollees (-5%) to 11,410,771. The remainder of learners were in SUCs and LUCs.
The pattern appears to be a shifting of students from tuition-based private schools to tuition-free public schools.
STARTING SCHOOL AT THE RIGHT AGE
Starting primary school at the right age makes a big difference in a number of ways based on worldwide PISA research. (PISA is the Programme for International Student Assessment by the OECD. PISA is an international test in Science, Mathematics and Reading given to randomly-selected 15-year olds in participating countries. The test has been conducted every three years since it was first administered in 2000. The Philippines participated for the first time in 2018.)
Stated another way, starting schooling and formal education at the wrong age can have disadvantages. Worldwide, most school systems agree that the right age to start formal education (Grade 1) is 6 years old. This has been established from research and experience to be the optimal age for children to start schooling. At this age, they have the attention span that allows them to learn conceptual things cognitively. They have the concentration to learning new skills not innate to what they did as very young children such as reading and writing. It must be pointed out, however, that Learning starts from birth through early childhood. A very young child can learn instinctively from what they sense and can remember, and from their elders and the community around them. This shapes very young children’s manners, actuations, and language (communication). But it is at age 6 that formal education can best be introduced.
A note: There are exceptional or precocious children who do start reading and writing even younger than 6 years old. That should not be discouraged nor should it be forced.
Another Note: In formal education, Kindergarten is considered pre-primary and not included in the counting of years of formal education.
PISA findings worldwide: Starting schooling at the right age can have a positive correlation with reading performance. Corollary to this, the negative effects of starting schooling late can grow exponentially as a child is delayed by more years. This can nave a compounding effect if this is not caught early.
In the Thailand PISA analysis, starting primary school age and grade repetition are related. A student who started primary school at age 6 has a 3.74% chance of repeating a grade. Entering a year later (at age 7), the probability increases to 4.85% and the negative effect grows exponentially for every additional year of delay in schooling
In the Thai PISA results, the negative marginal effect of grade repetition at the primary level is equivalent to more than a year’s worth of formal schooling (-37.9 II TS in Reading). (Thailand is used for illustration purposes because it has participated in PISA tests over a number of cycles. The Philippines participated only in 2018 and has no other data results to analyze.)
JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL (JHS,TRANSITION INTO HIGH SHOOL)
In JHS, the country are 582,756 less enrollees this school year (-7%) than in the previous year.
Of this number, 597,999 were from private schools representing a drop in enrolment (-42%) from the previous year. The public schools saw a drop of 45,515 learners (-1%) to 7,098,948.
SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL (PREPARATION FOR UNIVERSITY AND/OR THE WORLD OF WORK)
In all senior high schools nationwide, DepED reported a total of 2.89 million students enrolled this new school year. Compared to the previous year, there is a drop of 303,129 students (-9%).
Private have seen 597,611 less enrollees (-44) leaving the total private SHS enrolment at 760,271 students.
In the public schools, there is an increase of 331,778 SHS students (+19%) rising to 2,098,596 students.
The pattern appears to be of private school students transferring to public schools.
LEARNERS WITH DISABILITY
Learners with disabilities (LWD) are doubly challenged at this time of distance learning: Handling their disability and dealing with a different modality of learning in distance education.
The number of LWDs in the school system has been historically low. In the previous school year, DepED reported a total of 63,928 LWDs in public and private schools and SUC/LUCs. The total number of LWDs increased by 9,268 learners in all regions (+14%).
According to the WHO, the norm for a country not at war or experiencing extraordinary calamity, i.e. famine, is to see 10% of the population having some form of disability whether major or minor, physical or otherwise. The DepED data on the enrolment of LWDs is very far from this implying that most children with disabilities are not attending school hidden in their homes and communities.
Private schools LWD enrolment decreased by 1,278 learners (-33%) to 2,646.
Public schools, on the other hand, increased LWD enrolment by 10,502 learners (+18%) to 70,505.
Again, the pattern suggests private school LWDs shifting to public schools though the increase might also be growth from a low base.
HOW MANY HAVE DROPPED OUT OR DISAPPEARED?
This is where the data becomes unclear. DepED data reports that from the previous school year, 96% of students have re-enrolled in all grade levels. Netting out the transferees from private schools, DepED reports that the number of learners already enrolled in public schools decreased to 94.4%.
But the enrolment figures report other numbers numbers. Compared to the 2019-2020 total enrolment of 27.77 million students, the 2020-2021 school year enrolment is only 90.16% of that figure (25.04 million learners).
In absolute numbers, that means 1,307,115 public school learners (5.6%) not enrolled this school year in all grade levels.
A total of 429,012 learners are reported as transferees from private school and SUC/LUC to public schools (398,981 from private schools). This number if a lot lower than the difference in the number of private school enrollees between the two school years.
This leaves 1,740,499 private school learners not yet enrolled? (Current DepED policy allows until November 21, 2020 to allow for late enrollment in private schools. Public school enrollment is fixed for the current school year with no more transferees from private to public.)
In the DepED report, of the 2.73 million not enrolled this year, 76% are from private schools, 21% are in public schools and 3% from SUCs.
Private school are particularly hard hit leading to the closure of many smaller schools for lack of enrolment and revenues. A total of 748 schools (out of 14,435 schools) did not re-open this school year (5.2% of private schools) affecting 40,345 learners. The regions with the most number of closures were in Regions III, IV-A. VI, and NCR [COCOPEA, Sept 5, 2020].
MOST AFFECTED REGIONS
Regions with 95% or more re-enrolment are considered stable. Those with 80-94% enrolment should be concerned. Those with less than 80% enrolment are critical.
At the Kindergarten level, nine regions saw large drops in enrolment from 5% to 20% from the previous school year (of concern): Regions III, IV-A, V, VIII, IX, X, XI, XIII, and NCR. BARMM saw a critical drop in K enrolment (-68%).
At the ES level, there were significant drops in 9 (of 17) regions: Regions III, IV-A, V, VI, X, XII, XIII, CAR, and NCR. BARMM had a critical drop in ES enrolment (-75%).
At the JHS level, the regions with the largest losses were Regions III, IV-A, V, VIII, X, XI, XIII, and CAR. C2: BARMM, again had a large loss in JHS enrolment (-58%).
At the SHS level, two regions had significant losses in enrollment: Regions III and X. Four provinces, however, had decreases in enrolment of greater than 50%: Regions IV-A (76%), BARMM (59%), CAR (79%), and NCR (75%).
For LWDs, four regions saw significant drops in enrolment( Regions I, VII, VIII, and X. Three regions saw major drops in enrolment of LWDs: Regions VII (34%), VIII (73%), and CAR (77%). Nationwide, there was an increase in enrolled LWDs at 17% increase nationwide. Eight regions registered positive growth with Regions IV-A and V reporting the highest growth.
All regions reported a drop in ALS enrolment. Region V had the sharpest drop (-70%) highest with 7 regions at below 50% enrolment as compared to the previous year.
WHAT TO WORK ON NOW
One, the large number of Kindergarten-age learners who did not show up should be traced. This should be a partnership between DepED, DSWD and local governments. It might not be formal kindergarten interventions for now. Day care and other early childhood interventions would be sufficient. What is important is to start children and parents early on getting involved and engaged in education and schooling. With such a large cohort of K-age kids not showing up in school this year (almost a quarter of a million kids), this starts with tracing.
Two, getting started early on reading and writing is critical for success in later life. Starting the 3Rs late will have compounding effects of poor learning in the higher grades. The more children miss this chance to start reading and writing early in the primary grades, the more disadvantaged they will be I life.
Three, the transition to high school is important to getting children thinking of what they want to do in their adult life. Dropping out at this stage gives children little advantages at finding meaningful work as adults. (Getting this group picked up by Alternative Learning Systems (ALS) or offering technical-vocational courses by TESDA would be key.)
This pandemic period is exposing a not-so-hidden side of Philippine society. The middle class is trying to cope and a good part of this is to seek less-cost alternatives. This includes the shift from private schools to public schooling.
But for the lower income groups who appear not to be showing up for school, this is not a good thing. Taking a break from schooling or postponing entry for very young children is not a good calculus given the world experience. This form of coping will have long term negative consequences for the kids involved, their families, and for the country as a whole.
Certain regions of the country which are already lagging will be harder hit in the long run by this situation (i.e. BARMM).
Juan Miguel Luz 
Good day po sir. Thank you for sharing your articles about education. Hope to be furnished with your upcoming articles. Thank you again. Keep safe
LikeLike